Sleep-related breathing disorder in a Japanese occupational population and its association with hypertension-stratified analysis by obesity status.

Sleep-related breathing disorder (SRBD) causes hypertension, and obesity has been highly associated with SRBD, which has become a serious health problem in young and middle-aged Japanese males. However, the relation between SRBD and hypertension considering the effects of obesity remains unknown. In this cross-sectional study, we examined the relationship between SRBD and hypertension, with consideration for the effects of obesity, in Japanese occupational population. Using 3% oxygen desaturation index (3%ODI) obtained by simplified polysomnography (PSG), participants were classified into low (0 ≤ 3%ODI < 5), medium (5 ≤ 3%ODI < 15), and high (15 ≤ 3%ODI) 3%ODI groups. We excluded employees who had not undergone medical examination with simplified PSG in the same year from 2012 to 2018. Logistic regression analysis was performed to calculate odds ratios for having hypertension according to 3%ODI levels. In total, 2532 employees were included. Among them, 25% and 4% were categorized into the medium and high 3%ODI groups, respectively. The odds ratio for hypertension increased significantly with higher 3%ODI levels after adjustment for age, sex, alcohol drinking status and smoking status (p for trend < 0.0001). However, further adjustment for obesity status (body mass index ≥ 25 kg/m2) attenuated the associations. When we performed the stratified analysis by obesity status, the odds ratio for hypertension increased significantly with higher 3%ODI only for non-obese individuals, with significant interaction (p for interaction = 0.014). Higher 3%ODI was significantly associated with higher prevalence of hypertension especially in non-obese participants, suggesting the importance of vigilance for the presence of SRBD even in non-obese individuals. We investigated the association between SRBD and hypertension considering the effects of obesity, which would suggest the need to keep in mind the presence of SRBD even in non-obese individuals.

Left sinus of Valsalva aneurysm causing acute myocardial infarction with compression of the left main coronary trunk.

Sinus of Valsalva aneurysm (SVA) is a rare cardiac anomaly that commonly originates from the right or noncoronary sinuses and rarely from the left sinus. SVA is usually diagnosed in the setting of clinical sequelae of a rupture. We herein report a case of an unruptured left SVA presenting as acute myocardial infarction. A 54-year-old woman with a history of radical operation for patent ductus arteriosus in childhood was transferred to our hospital. An electrocardiogram indicated extensive myocardial ischemia with ST elevation. Urgent coronary angiography was performed but was unable to identify the left coronary artery. Subsequent aortography and computed tomography revealed a large SVA originating from the left sinus and compressing the left coronary artery. The patient died after approximately one month of intensive care, including mechanical circulatory support and coronary artery bypass grafting. Autopsy confirmed that the left main coronary trunk was stretched and compressed by the SVA and revealed unexpected atherosclerosis in the left anterior descending artery. Although a left SVA is an extremely rare anomaly, it occasionally provokes fatal myocardial infarction. Since an SVA might hinder performing percutaneous coronary intervention, cardiac surgery should be considered when myocardial ischemia is recognized. Learning objective: We herein report a case of an unruptured left sinus of Valsalva aneurysm (SVA) with acute myocardial infarction. Urgent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) was unsuccessful, as the left coronary artery was compressed by the SVA. The patient died after intensive care, including coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). SVA, especially from the left sinus, is extremely rare but occasionally provokes myocardial infarction by compressing the coronary arteries. Because SVA might hinder PCI, CABG should be considered when myocardial ischemia is recognized.

Day-to-day home blood pressure variability and risk of atrial fibrillation in a general Japanese population: the Hisayama Study.

AIMS: Several prospective studies have reported that higher visit-to-visit blood pressure variability (BPV) is associated with atrial fibrillation (AF). However, no studies have investigated the association between day-to-day BPV assessed by home blood pressure measurement and the development of AF. METHODS: A total of 2,827 community-dwelling Japanese aged ≥40 years without prior AF were followed up for 10 years (2007-2017). Day-to-day home BPV (defined as coefficients of variation [CoV] of home systolic blood pressure [SBP] for 28 days) were categorized into 4 groups according to the quartiles: Q1, ≤4.64%; Q2, 4.65%-5.70%; Q3, 5.71%-7.01%; Q4, ≥7.02%. The hazard ratios for developing AF were estimated using a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 134 participants developed new-onset AF. The crude incidence rates of AF increased significantly with higher CoV levels of home SBP: 2.1, 4.7, 5.3, and 8.8 per 1000 person-years in the first, second, third, and fourth quartiles, respectively (P for trend <0.01). After adjusting for potential confounders, increased CoV levels of home SBP were associated significantly with a higher risk of AF (P for trend =0.02). The participants in the highest quartile of CoV had a 2.18-fold (95% confidence intervals: 1.18-4.04) increased risk of developing AF compared to those in the lowest quartile. CONCLUSIONS: The present findings suggest that increased day-to-day home BPV levels are associated with a higher risk of the development of AF in a general Japanese population.

This prospective cohort study of a general Japanese population demonstrated a significant association between higher day-to-day blood pressure variability (BPV) assessed by home blood pressure monitoring and risk for the development of atrial fibrillation (AF). In addition, the association between BPV and the development of AF tended to be stronger in participants without hypertension.The findings of this study indicate that the evaluation of day-to-day BPV with home blood pressure monitoring may be useful to assess future risk of AF in participants with and without hypertension, and treatment that takes into account day-to-day BPV in addition to other cardiovascular risk factors may be necessary to prevent the development of AF.

CKD, Brain Atrophy, and White Matter Lesion Volume: The Japan Prospective Studies Collaboration for Aging and Dementia.

Rationale & Objective: Chronic kidney disease, defined by albuminuria and/or reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), has been reported to be associated with brain atrophy and/or higher white matter lesion volume (WMLV), but there are few large-scale population-based studies assessing this issue. This study aimed to examine the associations between the urinary albumin-creatinine ratio (UACR) and eGFR levels and brain atrophy and WMLV in a large-scale community-dwelling older population of Japanese. Study Design: Population-based cross-sectional study. Setting & Participants: A total of 8,630 dementia-free community-dwelling Japanese aged greater than or equal to 65 years underwent brain magnetic resonance imaging scanning and screening examination of health status in 2016-2018. Exposures: UACR and eGFR levels. Outcomes: The total brain volume (TBV)-to-intracranial volume (ICV) ratio (TBV/ICV), the regional brain volume-to-TBV ratio, and the WMLV-to-ICV ratio (WMLV/ICV). Analytical Approach: The associations of UACR and eGFR levels with the TBV/ICV, the regional brain volume-to-TBV ratio, and the WMLV/ICV were assessed by using an analysis of covariance. Results: Higher UACR levels were significantly associated with lower TBV/ICV and higher geometric mean values of the WMLV/ICV (P for trend = 0.009 and <0.001, respectively). Lower eGFR levels were significantly associated with lower TBV/ICV, but not clearly associated with WMLV/ICV. In addition, higher UACR levels, but not lower eGFR, were significantly associated with lower temporal cortex volume-to-TBV ratio and lower hippocampal volume-to-TBV ratio. Limitations: Cross-sectional study, misclassification of UACR or eGFR levels, generalizability to other ethnicities and younger populations, and residual confounding factors. Conclusions: The present study demonstrated that higher UACR was associated with brain atrophy, especially in the temporal cortex and hippocampus, and with increased WMLV. These findings suggest that chronic kidney disease is involved in the progression of morphologic brain changes associated with cognitive impairment.

Serum Mac-2 Binding Protein Glycosylation Isomer Concentrations Are Associated With Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes.

CONTEXT: Serum Mac-2 binding protein glycosylation isomer (M2BPGi) concentrations are known to be an indicator of chronic liver injury and fibrosis. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the association between serum M2BPGi concentrations and the development of type 2 diabetes in a Japanese community. METHODS: A total of 2143 community-dwelling Japanese individuals aged 40-79 years without diabetes at baseline were followed up for 7 years. Serum M2BPGi concentrations were divided into quintiles: Q1, ≤0.37 cutoff index (COI); Q2, 0.38-0.49 COI; Q3, 0.50-0.62 COI; Q4, 0.62-0.80 COI; and Q5, ≥0.81 COI. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% CIs for the development of type 2 diabetes. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 219 individuals developed type 2 diabetes. The age- and sex-adjusted cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes significantly increased with elevating serum M2BPGi levels (P for trend < .01). This association remained significant after adjustment for potential confounders (P for trend = .04). This significant association attenuated to a nonsignificant level after additionally adjusting for serum high-sensitivity C-reactive protein or homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance. CONCLUSION: The present study demonstrated that higher serum M2BPGi concentrations were significantly associated with higher risk of diabetes in a Japanese community. Moreover, inflammation and insulin resistance were suggested to contribute to the excess risk of diabetes in individuals with higher serum M2BPGi levels. These findings shed light on the importance of inflammation and insulin resistance when considering the pathogenesis of diabetes.

Changes in the Eicosapentaenoic Acid to Arachidonic Acid Ratio in Serum over 10 Years in a Japanese Community: The Hisayama Study.

AIM: Circulating omega-3 and omega-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids may to contribute to cardiovascular health at the population level. Over a decade, we investigated changes in the serum eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) to arachidonic acid (AA) ratio, and in serum concentrations of the individual fatty acids, in a Japanese community. METHODS: Community surveys took place in 2002-2003 and 2012-2013 in a rural area of Japan. The community surveys included 3,194 and 3,220 community dwellers aged ≥ 40 years who did not take EPA medication in 2002-2003 and 2012-2013, respectively. Fatty acid fractionations in serum were measured using a gas chromatography method. Changes in the serum EPA/AA ratio over time were examined using linear mixed models. RESULTS: Overall, the average serum EPA/AA ratio decreased over the 10 years. A decreasing trend in the serum EPA/AA ratio occurred in all age groups except participants aged ≥ 80 years, with larger decreases in the younger age groups. A similar decline in serum EPA/AA ratio occurred in participants with and those without lipid-lowering therapy. Serum EPA concentrations were slightly increased in the whole population but remained stable or even decreased in participants aged 40-69. In contrast, the average serum AA concentrations increased in all age groups. CONCLUSION: In a Japanese community, the serum EPA/AA ratio decreased over 10 years at the population level, especially in middle-aged participants.

Serum lipopolysaccharide-binding protein levels and the incidence of metabolic syndrome in a general Japanese population: the Hisayama Study.

BACKGROUND: The association between chronic lipopolysaccharide exposure and the development of metabolic syndrome (MetS) is unclear. In this study we examined the association between serum lipopolysaccharide-binding protein (LBP) levels, an indicator of lipopolysaccharide exposure, and the development of MetS in a general Japanese population. METHODS: 1,869 community-dwelling Japanese individuals aged ≥40 years without MetS at baseline examination in 2002-2003 were followed up by repeated examination in 2007-2008. MetS was defined according to the Japanese criteria. Serum LBP levels were classified into quartiles (quartiles 1-4: 2.20-9.56, 9.57-10.78, 10.79-12.18, and 12.19-24.34 µg/mL, respectively). Odds ratios (ORs) for developing MetS were calculated using a logistic regression model. RESULTS: At the follow-up survey, 159 participants had developed MetS. Higher serum LBP levels were associated with greater risk of developing MetS after multivariable adjustment for age, sex, smoking, drinking, and exercise habits (OR [95% confidence interval] for quartiles 1-4: 1.00 [reference], 2.92 [1.59-5.37], 3.48 [1.91-6.35], and 3.86 [2.12-7.03], respectively; P for trend <0.001). After additional adjustment for homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, this association was attenuated but remained significant (P for trend=0.007). On the other hand, no significant association was observed after additional adjustment for serum high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (P for trend=0.07). CONCLUSIONS: In the general Japanese population, our findings suggest that higher serum LBP levels are associated with elevated risk of developing MetS. Low-grade endotoxemia could play a role in the development of MetS through systemic chronic inflammation and insulin resistance.

Day-to-Day Blood Pressure Variability and Risk of Incident Chronic Kidney Disease in a General Japanese Population.

Background Several longitudinal studies have reported that higher visit-to-visit blood pressure variability is associated with greater risk for developing chronic kidney disease. However, no population-based studies have investigated the association between day-to-day home blood pressure variability and incident chronic kidney disease. Methods and Results A total of 2342 Japanese community-dwelling residents aged ≥40 years without chronic kidney disease at baseline were followed up by annual health examinations for 10 years. Home blood pressure was measured 3 times every morning for 28 days. Day-to-day coefficients of variation of home systolic blood pressure levels were categorized into quintiles. Chronic kidney disease was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 or the presence of proteinuria. The hazard ratios for developing chronic kidney disease were estimated with a Cox proportional hazards model. During the follow-up period, 772 participants developed chronic kidney disease. Increased coefficients of variation of home systolic blood pressure were associated significantly with higher risk of chronic kidney disease after adjusting for confounders (P for trend <0.001): Individuals in the highest quintile of coefficients of variation had a 1.50-fold (95% CI, 1.17-1.94) greater risk of developing chronic kidney disease than those in the lowest quintile. The combination of higher coefficients of variation and higher mean value of home systolic blood pressure was associated with the multivariable-adjusted risk of developing chronic kidney disease. Conclusions These findings suggest that increased day-to-day blood pressure variability is a significant risk factor for developing chronic kidney disease in a general Japanese population.

Risks of Mortality and Airflow Limitation in Japanese Individuals with Preserved Ratio Impaired Spirometry.

Rationale: Several Western studies have reported that participants with preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm) have higher risks of airflow limitation (AFL) and death. However, evidence in East Asian populations is limited. Objectives: To investigate the relationship between PRISm and the risks of death and incident AFL in a Japanese population. Methods: A total of 3,032 community-dwelling Japanese participants aged ⩾40 years were seen in follow-up for a median of 5.3 years by annual spirometry examinations. Participants were classified into lung function categories at baseline as follows: normal spirometry (FEV1/FVC ⩾0.70 and FEV1 ⩾80% predicted), PRISm (⩾0.70 and <80%), AFL Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease 1 (<0.70 and ⩾80%), and AFL Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease 2-4 (<0.70 and <80%). Hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% confidence intervals were computed using a Cox proportional hazards model. Measurements and Main Results: During the follow-up period, 131 participants died, 22 of whom died of cardiovascular disease, and 218 participants developed AFL. When examining the prognosis of each baseline lung function category, participants with PRISm had higher risks of all-cause death (HR, 2.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.35-3.59) and cardiovascular death (HR, 4.07; 1.07-15.42) than those with normal spirometry after adjusting for confounders. Moreover, the multivariable-adjusted risk of incident AFL was greater in participants with PRISm than in those with normal spirometry (HR, 2.48; 1.83-3.36). Conclusions: PRISm was associated with higher risks of all-cause and cardiovascular death and a greater risk of the development of AFL in a Japanese community.

Active commuting, commuting modes and the risk of diabetes: 14-year follow-up data from the Hisayama study.

AIMS/INTRODUCTION: We aimed to investigate the association of active commuting (cycling or walking to work), as well as the association of the individual commuting modes, with the risk of diabetes in a prospective cohort of community-dwelling adults in Japan. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A total of 1,270 residents aged 40-79 years were followed up for a median of 14 years. Active commuting was defined as either cycling or walking to work. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to examine the association of active commuting with the risk of diabetes. Associations for different forms of active commuting (cycling, walking and mixed modes of cycling or walking with non-active components) were also examined. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 191 participants developed diabetes. Active commuting was associated with a lower risk of diabetes than non-active commuting after adjustment for potential confounders (hazard ratio [HR] 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.31-0.92). With regard to the commuting modes, the risk of diabetes was significantly lower in individuals who commuted by cycling alone (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.22-0.98), and tended to be lower in individuals who commuted by walking alone (HR 0.14, 95% CI 0.02-1.02) compared with that in individuals with non-active commuting. Meanwhile, no significant associations were observed for the mixed mode of walking and non-active commuting (HR 1.69, 95% CI 0.77-3.71). CONCLUSIONS: Active commuting, particularly that consisting exclusively of cycling or walking, was associated with a reduced risk of diabetes. Our findings support a public health policy that promotes the choice of active commuting for the prevention of diabetes.

Long-term association of vegetable and fruit intake with risk of dementia in Japanese older adults: the Hisayama study.

BACKGROUND: Several prospective Western studies have reported an inverse association of vegetable and fruit intake with dementia risk. However, there is limited epidemiologic evidence in Asians. This study investigated the association of intakes of vegetables, fruits, and their nutrients on the risk of incident dementia and its subtypes in a Japanese community. METHODS: A total of 1071 participants (452 men and 619 women) aged ≥60 years without dementia at baseline were prospectively followed up for 24 years. Intakes of vegetables, fruits, and nutrients were evaluated using a 70-item semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire at baseline and were categorized into quartiles separately by gender. The outcome measure was the development of dementia and its subtypes-namely, Alzheimer's disease (AD) and vascular dementia (VaD). The risk estimates of incident dementia were computed using a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: During the long-term follow-up period, 464 subjects developed dementia, of whom 286 had AD and 144 had VaD. Higher vegetable intake was associated gradually with lower risk of developing dementia and AD (both P-trend < 0.05), but not VaD, after adjusting for confounders. Subjects allocated the highest quartile of vegetable intake had 27 and 31% lower risk of dementia and AD, respectively, than those with the lowest quartile. The risk of dementia decreased significantly with higher intakes of vitamin A, riboflavin, vitamin C, magnesium, calcium, and potassium (all P-trend < 0.05). Subjects with higher total dietary fiber intake tended to be at decreased risk for total dementia (P-trend = 0.07). Meanwhile, there were no significant associations between fruit intake and the risk of dementia and its subtypes. CONCLUSION: Higher intakes of vegetables and their constituent nutrients were associated with a lower risk of dementia in Japanese older adults. A diet rich in vegetables may be beneficial in reducing the dementia risk in Asians.

Long-Term Trends in The 5-Year Risk of Recurrent Stroke over A Half Century in A Japanese Community: The Hisayama Study.

AIM: Secular trends in the risk of recurrent stroke have been reported in several epidemiological studies worldwide, but this issue has not been investigated in general Japanese populations. We examined the trends in the 5-year risk of recurrent stroke over a half century using community-based prospective data in Japan. METHODS: We established 4 cohort studies in 1961, 1974, 1988, and 2002. To examine the risk of recurrent stroke, participants who developed stroke during a 10-year follow-up period in each cohort were followed-up for 5 years from the date of first onset. A total of 154 (first sub-cohort: 1961-1971), 144 (second sub-cohort: 1974-1984), 172 (third sub-cohort: 1988-1998), and 146 (fourth sub-cohort: 2002-2012) participants from each cohort were enrolled in the present study. The 5-year cumulative risk of recurrent stroke was compared among the sub-cohorts using the Kaplan-Meier method and the age- and sex-adjusted Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: The risks of recurrent stroke after any stroke and ischemic stroke decreased significantly from the first to the third sub-cohort, but they did not clearly change from the third to the fourth sub-cohort. The risk of recurrent stroke after hemorrhagic stroke decreased mainly from the first to the second sub-cohort and there was no apparent decrease from the second to the fourth sub-cohort. These trends were substantially unchanged after adjusting for age and sex. CONCLUSIONS: In the Japanese community, the risk of recurrent stroke decreased mainly from the 1960s to 1990s, but there was no apparent decrease in recent years.

Serum Uric Acid Levels and Nephrosclerosis in a Population-Based Autopsy Study: The Hisayama Study.

INTRODUCTION: Information regarding the influence of serum uric acid (SUA) levels on pathological changes in the kidney is limited. In this study, we examined the association between SUA levels and pathological findings of nephrosclerosis in population-based autopsy samples. METHODS: A total of 923 deceased individuals in a Japanese community underwent autopsy examinations between 1974 and 1994. Of these, 547 individuals with available kidney tissues and health examination data within a median of 3 years before death were eligible for the present study. SUA levels were categorized into quintiles (Q1, 107-237; Q2, 238-279; Q3, 280-326; Q4, 327-380; Q5, 381-755 µmol/L). Advanced degrees of glomerular sclerosis, kidney arteriolar hyalinosis, and kidney arteriosclerosis were defined as the 90th percentile or more of a glomerular sclerosis index and an arteriolar hyalinosis index, and the 10th percentile or less of a wall-lumen ratio, respectively. A logistic regression model was used to evaluate odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of SUA levels on each kidney lesion. RESULTS: Higher SUA levels were significantly associated with higher values of the age- and sex-adjusted glomerular sclerosis index and lower values of the wall-lumen ratio (both p for trend <0.01). Individuals in the Q5 group had a significantly greater likelihood of advanced glomerular sclerosis (OR 7.19, 95% CI 2.42-21.38) and advanced kidney arteriosclerosis (OR 5.28, 95% CI 1.77-15.80) than individuals in the Q1 group after adjusting for potential covariates. There was no evidence of significant associations of SUA levels with either the arteriolar hyalinosis index or the presence of advanced arteriolar hyalinosis. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated SUA levels were significantly associated with advanced glomerular sclerosis and advanced kidney arteriosclerosis, but not with advanced arteriolar hyalinosis in community-based autopsy samples of Japanese.

Yogurt product intake and reduction of tooth loss risk in a Japanese community.

AIM: To evaluate the longitudinal association between yogurt product intake and oral health in a population-based study. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study included 1967 Japanese residents aged 40-79 years who underwent dental examinations in 2012. Among them, 1469 participants were followed up in 2017 for the incidence of tooth loss, which was defined as two or more teeth lost over 5 years. The intake of yogurt products, defined as yogurt and lactic acid beverages, was estimated using a semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire. The composition of the salivary microbiota was evaluated. RESULTS: The Poisson regression model showed that a higher intake of yogurt products was negatively associated with the incidence of tooth loss (p for trend = .020), adjusted for potential confounding factors. Mediation analysis confirmed that periodontal condition partly mediated the effect of yogurt product intake on tooth loss, while dental caries experience did not. Additionally, we confirmed the association of a high intake of yogurt products with a low percentage of the salivary microbiota pattern, which was associated with poor oral health. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that the intake of yogurt products is associated with a lower risk of tooth loss resulting from periodontal disease, probably via modulation of the oral microbiome composition.

Changes in Body Weight and Concurrent Changes in Cardiovascular Risk Profiles in Community Residents in Japan: the Hisayama Study.

AIM: We investigated the influence of weight change on concurrent changes in predicted cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and individual CVD risk factors over time. METHODS: A total of 2,140 community-dwellers aged 40-74 years participated in both 2002 and 2007 health examinations. Obesity was defined as body mass index ≥ 25 kg/m2. Weight trajectories were classified as: "stable obese" (obese at both examinations), "obese to nonobese" (obese in 2002 but nonobese in 2007), "nonobese to obese" (nonobese in 2002 but obese in 2007), or "stable nonobese" (nonobese at both examinations). We compared changes in the model-predicted risk for CVD and individual CVD risk factors across weight-change categories. RESULTS: The predicted risk for CVD increased during 5 years in all groups; the increment in the predicted risk for CVD was smallest in the obese to nonobese participants and steepest in the nonobese to obese subjects. Compared with the stable obese participants, the obese to nonobese participants had greater favorable changes in waist circumferences, blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, serum triglycerides, and liver enzymes. For all these parameters, opposite trends were observed when comparing the nonobese to obese participants with the stable nonobese group. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated the favorable association of losing weight in obese people and avoiding excessive weight gain in nonobese people with global risk of future CVD and individual CVD risk factors in a real-world setting. The findings could improve behavioral lifestyle interventions that provide information on the health consequences of weight change at health checkups.

Development and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Japanese Adults: The Hisayama Study.

AIM: To develop and validate a new risk prediction model for predicting the 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in Japanese adults. METHODS: A total of 2,454 participants aged 40-84 years without a history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) were prospectively followed up for 24 years. An incident ASCVD event was defined as the first occurrence of coronary heart disease or atherothrombotic brain infarction. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to construct the prediction model. In addition, a simplified scoring system was translated from the developed prediction model. The model performance was evaluated using Harrell's C statistics, a calibration plot with the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino test, and a bootstrap validation procedure. RESULTS: During a median of a 24-year follow-up, 270 participants experienced the first ASCVD event. The predictors of the ASCVD events in the multivariable Cox model included age, sex, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, serum low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, proteinuria, smoking habits, and regular exercise. The developed models exhibited good discrimination with negligible evidence of overfitting (Harrell's C statistics: 0.786 for the multivariable model and 0.789 for the simplified score) and good calibrations (the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino test: P=0.29 for the multivariable model, 0.52 for the simplified score). CONCLUSION: We constructed a risk prediction model for the development of ASCVD in Japanese adults. This prediction model exhibits great potential as a tool for predicting the risk of ASCVD in clinical practice by enabling the identification of specific risk factors for ASCVD in individual patients.

Development of a dementia prediction model for primary care: The Hisayama Study.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to develop a risk prediction model for incident dementia using predictors that are available in primary-care settings. METHODS: A total of 795 subjects aged 65 years or over were prospectively followed-up from 1988 to 2012. A Cox proportional-hazards regression was used to develop a multivariable prediction model. The developed model was translated into a simplified scoring system based on the beta-coefficient. The discrimination of the model was assessed by Harrell's C statistic, and the calibration was assessed by a calibration plot. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 364 subjects developed dementia. In the multivariable model, age, female sex, low education, leanness, hypertension, diabetes, history of stroke, current smoking, and sedentariness were selected as predictors. The developed model and simplified score showed good discrimination and calibration. DISCUSSION: The developed risk prediction model is feasible and practically useful in primary-care settings to identify individuals at high risk for future dementia.

Development of a risk prediction model for incident hypertension in Japanese individuals: the Hisayama Study.

The identification of individuals at high risk of developing hypertension can be of great value to improve the efficiency of primary prevention strategies for hypertension. The objective of this study was to develop a risk prediction model for incident hypertension based on prospective longitudinal data from a general Japanese population. A total of 982 subjects aged 40-59 years without hypertension at baseline were followed up for 10 years (2002-12) for the incidence of hypertension. Hypertension was defined as systolic blood pressure (SBP) ≥ 140 mmHg, diastolic blood pressure (DBP) ≥ 90 mmHg, or the use of antihypertensive agents. The risk prediction model was developed using a Cox proportional hazards model. A simple risk scoring system was also established based on the developed model. During the follow-up period (median 10 years, interquartile range 5-10 years), 302 subjects (120 men and 182 women) developed new-onset hypertension. The risk prediction model for hypertension consisted of age, sex, SBP, DBP, use of glucose-lowering agents, body mass index (BMI), parental history of hypertension, moderate-to-high alcohol intake, and the interaction between age and BMI. The developed model demonstrated good discrimination (Harrell's C statistic=0.812 [95% confidence interval, 0.791-0.834]; optimism-corrected C statistic based on 200 bootstrap samples=0.804) and calibration (Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino χ2 statistic=12.2). This risk prediction model is a useful guide for estimating an individual's absolute risk for hypertension and could facilitate the management of Japanese individuals at high risk of developing hypertension in the future.

Serum NT-proBNP levels and histopathological myocardial fibrosis in autopsied cases from a Japanese community: The Hisayama Study.

BACKGROUND: natriuretic peptide is associated with myocardial fibrosis in animal models and among patients with heart disease. However, it remains unclear whether serum N-terminal pro-B-type peptide (NT-proBNP) levels are associated with histopathologically proven myocardial fibrosis among individuals without apparent heart disease. This study aimed to evaluate the association between serum NT-proBNP levels and the histopathologically estimated myocardial fibrotic area in autopsied samples from a community. METHODS: we selected 63 cases without apparent heart disease with available data of serum NT-proBNP concentrations within six years before death (average age: 82 years; male: 52%) from autopsied cases in a community, and evaluated the percentage areas of myocardial fibrosis in four cardiac segments from each case (i.e. 252 cardiac segments in total). The association between serum NT-proBNP levels and the percentage area of myocardial fibrosis was estimated using a linear mixed model for repeated measures. RESULTS: serum NT-proBNP levels were positively correlated with myocardial fibrotic area [Pearson's correlation coefficient: r = 0.49 (95% confidence interval: 0.28-0.66), p <0.001]. Serum NT-proBNP levels were significantly associated with the percentage areas of myocardial fibrosis after adjusting for potential confounding factors. There was no evidence of heterogeneity in the association between the subgroups with and without reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (<60 mL/min/1.73 m2). CONCLUSIONS: the present study demonstrated that elevated serum NT-proBNP levels were associated with the histopathologically measured myocardial fibrotic area in autopsied cases from a community. These findings may help clarify the association between elevated serum NT-proBNP levels and myocardial fibrosis and their influence on prognosis.